基于多属性目标决策的威胁评估排序模型

针对当前海战中对舰艇编队构成威胁的空中目标的特点,运用目标多属性理论探索对空中目标的威胁排序问题.提出了一种对空中目标进行威胁评估和排序的方法,并通过示例介绍了威胁评估和排序的求解过程.该方法有效地解决了目标威胁评估与排序问题,提高了舰艇编队防空作战能力.     

海上机动目标群威胁预警建模及仿真实现

在陆基弹道导弹与海上机动目标的攻防作战过程中,需要研究双方火力控制范围的变化情况,并对海上机动目标群的威胁进行报警.根据海上机动目标运动特性,提出用灰色模型与自回归时序AR组合建模方法构建机动目标运动预测模型.依据此模型对双方火力控制区的变化进行预测,最后给出了海上机动目标威胁预警仿真系统的实现思路.解决了陆基弹道导弹对抗海上机动目标群的作战保障工程的部分问题,具有较强军事应用价值.     

Combined variance reduction techniques in fully sequential selection procedures

In the past several decades, many ranking‐and‐selection (R&S) procedures have been developed to select the best simulated system with the largest (or smallest) mean performance measure from a finite number of alternatives. A major issue to address in these R&S problems is to balance the trade‐off between the effectiveness (ie, making a correct selection with a high probability) and the efficiency (ie, using a small total number of observations). In this paper, we take a frequentist's point of view by setting a predetermined probability of correct selection while trying to reduce the total sample size, that is, to improve the efficiency but also maintain the effectiveness. In particular, in order to achieve this goal, we investigate combining various variance reduction techniques into the fully sequential framework, resulting in different R&S procedures with either finite‐time or asymptotic statistical validity. Extensive numerical experiments show great improvement in the efficiency of our proposed procedures as compared with several existing procedures.     

Comparison of rank aggregation methods based on inherent ability

Ranking is a common task for selecting and evaluating alternatives. In the past few decades, combining rankings results from various sources into a consensus ranking has become an increasingly active research topic. In this study, we focus on the evaluation of rank aggregation methods. We first develop an experimental data generation method, which can provide ground truth ranking for alternatives based on their “inherent ability.” This experimental data generation method can generate the required individual synthetic rankings with adjustable accuracy and length. We propose characterizing the effectiveness of rank aggregation methods by calculating the Kendall tau distance between the aggregated ranking and the ground truth ranking. We then compare four classical rank aggregation methods and present some useful findings on the relative performances of the four methods. The results reveal that both the accuracy and length of individual rankings have a remarkable effect on the comparison results between rank aggregation methods. Our methods and results may be helpful to both researchers and decision‐makers.     

US strategic preferences in the early twenty-first century

This article investigates how US national security planners have envisioned the emerging strategic environment during the early twenty-first century and evaluates how their perceptions of this strategic environment have changed during these years. This conceptual evolution can be seen in how defense planners define threats, identify defense priorities, and design security strategies. Five key strategic planning documents serve as the basis for this analysis and illustrate significant shifts in how the US government has envisioned its own security requirements as well as the context within which its strategic vision will need to be realized. These planning documents are: (1) Joint Vision 2020, (2) the Bush Administration's 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States, (3) the Obama Administration's 2010 National Security Strategy, (4) US Strategic Defense Guidance entitled Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21^st Century Defense, and (5) the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's Capstone Concept for Joint Operations: Joint Force 2020.     

基于集对分析的目标威胁评估与排序研究

在分析以往目标威胁评估与排序方法不足的基础上,提出了基于集对分析的多因素威胁评估方法,以定量的结果对目标的威胁程度进行综合评估,为威胁评估与排序问题寻求出一种新的方法,其评估结果可为指挥员对空情威胁做出正确判断提供科学依据。     

基于多准则的战损装备抢修排序决策模型

通过对战场抢修排序原则的分析和量化,利用模糊综合评判的方法,建立了战场抢修排序的数学模型,可以有效地解决装备抢修中多个装备多准则排序的问题,为装备保障部门进行决策提供依据。     

基于排序的自适应遗传算法航空炸弹弹道拟合方法

提出了一种基于排序的自适应遗传算法的航空炸弹弹道的拟合方法.该方法在简单遗传算法的基础上,将每一代染色体的适应度排序,并添加了交叉率和变异率的自适应控制函数,既克服了简单遗传算法收敛速度慢,稳定性差的缺点,又改善了函数优化效果.算法应用于某型航空炸弹的弹道数据拟合,仿真结果表明,该算法的拟合精度高,拟合模型优化效果良好.     

基于对策论的威胁评估模型

数据融合模型一般包括多个层次,威胁评估是其中之一。威胁评估根据态势情况,推测威胁程度及可能的行动方案。在分析对策论和威胁评估的基础上,提出基于矩阵对策的威胁评估模型及分析方法。     

国外红外侦察告警装备的新发展

综述了国外机载、卫星载红外告警设备和舰载红外搜索与跟踪系统的最新进展。